The Will Kurt's excellent book to dive into the basics of Bayes' theorem from scratch.
The author has chosen a challenging but very promising path — explaining the foundations of statistics using simple and accessible metaphors, such as Star Wars or LEGO bricks.
Based on real-life examples and games, the author helps readers develop skills in critical thinking, probability assessment, and making informed decisions based on available data. This book will be especially useful for beginners in statistics, as the language and examples are incredibly digestible. All formulas are broken down and described in detail, and all examples are explained in layman's terms.
For instance, if you want to understand whether tomorrow will be sunny or cloudy, you can use the Bayesian approach to consider various factors, such as current weather conditions, the season, etc., to make a more accurate forecast.
Or suppose you're debating with someone about the latest conspiracy theory (which I hate). The author provides an example showing that the only correct way to argue in this case is to influence your opponent's prior beliefs.
Additionally, the book clearly describes the principles of Bayesian ABtesting and the basics of hypothesis testing, considering so-called prior probabilities and the likelihood of competing hypotheses.
You can buy the book on Amazon.
If you know of anything similar, please share in the comments.
Interested in diving into product and marketing metrics? Check my Free GA4-BigQuery Cheat Sheet.
